|US Men fight Germany in sold out Sendoff @ 2:30 pm on TBS, HBO
Man it was nice to see the US bounceback vs Senagal and bring home a 3-2 win. Pulisic appears to have re-found his mojo with a goal and an assist in the game. Cantor Version US Goal US Highlights. I loved the offense especially Pepi and Pulisic up front who along with Dest were just spectacular. I also thought Berhalter actually had some good moments alongside Adams in the middle. The 2nd half saw McKinney and Balo on the same page along with Tillman feeding perfect thru balls. Gives me hope offensively moving forward. Now Defense is another story. I love Tim Ream – have his Fulham jersey in my closet – but at 38 years old he’s too old to play real teams. Sure he’s ok vs lower teams – but if he plays vs Turkey – we will lose that game! I did love Freeman as the right back and McKensie was fine in the middle. But if Chris Richards is out for the World Cup – we are done. If Richards can be back by at least Turkey – we have a chance. I think Trusty and McKensie might be able to hold it down. Coming off the confidence building 3-2 win and with what should be a US packed crowd in Chicago – I like the US chances this weekend – especially if Centerback Chris Richards can play. US wins 2-1 if Richards plays. If not its a 2-2 draw. Either way ok heading into the World Cup next Friday..
Shane’s Line-up
US Ladies Face Brazil for Sun 5:30 TBS, HBO –Triple Expresso is back
Triple Expresso is back as the attacking trio of Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Wilson lead us into our friendlies in Brazil starting Sunday. Swanson returns to the US women’s national team for the first time since 2024, joining “Triple Espresso” teammates Rodman and Wilson for the first time since winning the 2024 Paris Olympics. The USA returned to international action with three friendlies against Japan in March, recording a 2-1 win and a commanding 3-0 victory either side of a narrow 1-0 defeat to the 2011 World Cup winners. Having recorded nine shutouts in their previous 11 games, the Stars and Stripes will fancy their chances of negating Brazil’s attacking talent in their first outing outside the USA since November 2024. There is a strong chance Saturday’s clash will be a tight game, given the fact that four of the last five meetings between the two sides have been decided by a one-goal margin. Brazil may have home advantage, but I think they will fall short against a USA side that has won 11 of their previous 12 internationals. Let’s go with USA 2-1.
Shane’s Line-Up
Indy 11 Wins Carries 9 game Unbeaten Streak into Sat Indy Racing Night at 7 pm
Indianapolis – Bruno Rendón scored a goal for the fourth straight match, Eric Dick made six saves while recording his 33rd career clean sheet, and the Boys in Blue vaulted themselves up to second place in the Eastern Conference with a 1-0 win over Rhode Island FC at Carroll Stadium, extending their home unbeaten streak to nine (8-0-1). Dick was extraordinary, repeatedly claiming crosses and making comfortable saves on long-range shots. Indy Eleven’s goalkeeper never appeared troubled by any of Rhode Island’s six shots on target, and held down the fort in front of the Brickyard Battalion for a second half that saw the visitors take 12 shots. Cam Lindley made history for the second straight week, breaking the franchise record for starts in all competitions with his 107th. Lindley already holds the club mark for appearances in all comps with 128, a record that he broke last week. He also surpassed 15,000 career minutes tonight (15,042).
A third of the way through the season, the Boys in Blue finished Saturday night in second place in the Eastern Conference after starting the night it in fifth. Indy Eleven has won three straight league games since losing 1-0 to still-undefeated Tampa Bay Rowdies. this Saturday, June 6 is Racing Indy Night at Carroll Stadium when the Boys in Blue host USL League One side Forward Madison FC in Prinx Tires USL Cup action at 7 p.m. Tickets start at just $7 online and fans can add an Indy Eleven Racing Milk Bottle at checkout for $4. Ticket options include the new Desnuda Tequila Deck, Family Four-Packs, and Flex Mini-Plans.
World Cup Preview
We are now less than 1 week from the World Cup. I leave Wed for LA to join my daughter Courtney on a trek to follow the US Men as far as we go. In 1 week I will be here. We desperately need the US to win the Group — if so we (thanks in part to my buddy Bart) have a chance to see every US game till the World Cup Final (LOL – if only). Finish 2nd and we have tickets except for Atlanta Sweet 16 game. Love these new WC Commercials coming out Nike World Cup Ad Mmbappe Minions Speed Brings the WC Heat. Coooors Light Do You Believe ? Lays Bandwagon Adidas Backyard Legends Pepsi Football Nation Budweiser Klopp.
Wellington Defender Tim Payne has become famous after a South American Influencer shared this.
I haven’t had time to completely pick my favorites – though obviously France, Spain, Argentina, England are listed as favorites along with Brazil and perhaps Renaldo & Portugal. I like the 1994 WC Champs Brazil with Carlos Ancelotti as coach and a rejuvenated Neymar to make a run to the Final 4. Neymar is just fun. Of Course with Messi (the GOAT) still around Argentina could be the first Country to Defend their Cup since Brazil in 1958, 1962 (Pele). In case you forgot 2022. (WC 2022 Final) Messi is cool.
Lots of Great content all about the US men heading into the World Cup next week. US WC Roster, US Boys,
The US Ladies are just cool Here’s Triple Expresso getting ready in Brazil. Our US Coach Emma Hayes is THE GOAT of Coaching –Love this Coach ! I will have my World Cup picks in next week’s Ole Ballcoach live from Los Angeles.
World Cup Pick-Em
TV Schedule – Games on TV
Fri, June 5
7 pm FS2 Canada vs Ireland
Sat, June 6
2:30 pm TBS, HBO, Peacock USA Men vs Germany
5:30 pm TBS, HBO, Peacock USA Ladies @ Brazil
4 pm FS+ England vs New Zealand
7 pm Wish TV8 Indy 11 vs Forward Madison FC
8 pm Uni? FoxD Argentina vs Honduras
Sun, June 7
2:45 pm FS2 Croatia vs Slovenia
3 pm ESPND, plus Morocco vs Norway
Mon, June 8
2:45 pm FS2 Netherlands vs Uzbekistan
3 pm ?? France vs N. Ireland
10 pm ?? Peru vs Spain
Tues, June 9
8:30 pm TNT, HBO, Peacock USA Ladies @ Brazil
Thur, June, 11 World Cup
3 pm Fox Mexico vs South Africa
10 pm FS1 Korea vs Czech Republic
Fri, June 12 WORLD CUP
7 pm ESPN+ Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Indy 11
3 pm Fox, Tele Canada vs Boznia/Hertz
9 pm Fox, Tele, Peacock USA Men vs Paraguay World Cup
Sat, June 13
3 pm Fox Qatar vs Switzerland
6 pm Fox Brazil vs Morocco
9 pm FS1 Haiti vs Scotland
12 Mid pm FS1 Australia vs Turkey
Sun, June 15
12N Fox Spain vs Cape Verde
3 pm Fox Belgium vs Egypt
6 pm FS1 Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
9 pm FS1 Iran vs New Zealand
Mon, June 16
3 pm Fox France vs Senagal
6 pm Fox Iraq vs Norway
9 pm FS1 Argentina vs Algeria
12Mid FS1 Austria vs Jordan
Tues, June 17
1 pm Fox Portugal (Ronaldo) vs Congo
4 pm Fox England vs Croatia
7 pm FS1 Ghana vs Panama
10 pm FS1 Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Wed, June 18
12N Fox Czechia vs South Africa
3 pm Fox Switzerland vs Bosnia & Hertz
6 pm FS1 Qatar vs Canada
9 pm FS1 Mexico vs South Korea
Fri, June 19
3 pm Fox, Tele, Peacock USA Men vs Australia World Cup
6 pm Fox Scotland vs Moracco
8:30 pm Fox Brazil vs Haiti
11 pm FS1 Turkey vs Paraguay
Thur, June 25
10 pm Fox, Tele, Peacock USA Men vs Australia World Cup
Complete 2026 World Cup schedule featuring match dates and start times
World Cup Printable Schedule
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USA Men
The USMNT have a chance to inspire a nation at the World Cup
2026 World Cup Group D preview: USMNT embarks on historic journey
2026 USMNT Friendly: Scouting Germany
USMNT player ratings: Pulisic shines in 8/10 performance in pre-World Cup win over Senegal
USA vs. Senegal, 2026 Friendly: Man of the Match
Pulisic breaks drought, hopes people stop ‘talking’
USMNT builds World Cup momentum by beating Senegal but questions remain
Dest ‘surprised’ by pro-U.S. crowd in USMNT win
Aaronson was ‘freaking out’ over pre-WC wedding
Berhalter snub in ’22 helped Pepi ‘grow’ for ’26
‘This is a starting point’: U.S. Soccer’s new home will help grow the game
USMNT defeats Senegal 3-2 in pre-World Cup friendly, showing signs of hope & concern
U.S. U-20 prepares for qualifying, Milan courts Poch, Carnell out, Paredes free agent, & more
US Women
Why the USWNT might be better off losing to Brazil in World Cup dry run
Rodman: U.S. Triple Espresso reunion ‘amazing’z
2026 USWNT Friendlies: Scouting Brazil
Preview: Brazil Women vs USA Women – prediction, team news, lineups
USWNT Star Trinity Rodman Talks ‘Triple Espresso’ Reunion
World Cup
Get ready for the biggest World Cup ever! What you need to know about all 48 teams
How the USMNT went from Italia 90 embarrassment to World Cup force in 1994
– World Cup 2026 format and tiebreakers explained, full match schedule
– Kit ranking: All 105 home, away, third alternate jersey at the World Cup
– Meet the World Cup debutants: Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, Uzbekistan
Champions League
PSG rule Champions League in a way that other clubs can only hope to replicate
Inside Arsenal’s mammoth 63-game season: Premier League glory, UCL heartbreak
Rice to Arsenal critics: ‘Jealousy everywhere’
Gabriel: Arsenal’s CL shoot-out defeat ‘painful’
Arteta: Arsenal must be ‘ambitious’ after final loss
Reffing
VAR review: UCL ref got the Mendes-Madueke call right, but it was close
New Rules for World Cup
WC Rule Changes Subs
World Cup Rule Changes
Goal Keeping
Indy11
Rendon Finalist for USL-C “Player of the Month”
Indy Eleven Extends Home Unbeaten Streak to Nine With 1-0 Win Over Rhode Island FC
Eric Dick USL-C “Team of the Week”
W League Recap – TOL 0:6 IND
Noble Okello Earns International Call-Up with Uganda
Anthony Herbert Earns International Call-Up with Trinidad & Tobago
USMNT’s Pulisic breaks goal drought, hopes people stop ‘talking’
- Jeff CarlisleMay 31, 2026, 08:26 PM ETFollow
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — United States manager Mauricio Pochettino was “happy” with the contribution of attacker Christian Pulisic, who broke his five-month scoring drought with a goal and an assist in a 3-2 friendly win over Senegal on Sunday.
For Pulisic, the weight off his shoulders was evident after he scored, as he yelled and slid to his knees in celebration.
Editor’s Picks
- USMNT builds World Cup momentum by beating Senegal but questions remainJeff Carlisle
- U.S. beats Senegal as Pulisic nets 1st goal of ’26ESPN News Services
- USMNT player ratings: Pulisic shines in 8/10 performance in pre-World Cup win over SenegalRyan Clark
“I felt this confidence. I’ve played really well in recent months too, but all people seem to care about is goals,” Pulisic said. “So hopefully now people can stop talking about it. And I feel good and now obviously just a friendly.
“[We’ve] got big games ahead and I got to be ready.”
The match was the first of two pre-World Cup friendlies, with the U.S. set to take on Germany on Saturday. The U.S. opens the World Cup against Paraguay on June 12 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Pulisic assisted on Sergiño Dest‘s seventh-minute opener, and then doubled the U.S. lead in the 20th minute has he latched on to Ricardo Pepi‘s pass, rounded Senegal keeper Mory Diaw and scored from a tight angle. The goal was Pulisic’s first for club or country since scoring for AC Milan on Dec. 28. The goal also ended an eight-game drought with the U.S. that dated to November 2024.
Pochettino noted that the goals were a result of the effort Pulisic put in during practice in the lead-up to the game.
“Every day, training with this attitude, with this commitment, with this energy, I think now we need to try to [extend] until 90 minutes,” Pochettino said about Pulisic, who played only the first half. “Happy for him also because after the long time or few months [without a goal], let’s score again, which is important for a player knowing the preparation to the World Cup.”
Overall, Pochettino said he was satisfied with the performance, though he added there was still work to be done.
“I think it was, I think positive to finish after 90 minutes in a good form,” he said. “I think with the possibility to [have] nearly the whole roster playing minutes. I think it’s … many positive things. [There are] things that we need to improve, obvious things that we need to improve, but I think I’m happy to finish the first week of training and competing [against] a really good team like Senegal.”
The U.S. squandered the two-goal advantage Pulisic helped create by conceding two goals to Senegal star Sadio Mané. On the first, the U.S. failed to manage a transition opportunity after a turnover in midfield. The second was the result of a sloppy pass from U.S. defender Miles Robinson and a moment’s hesitation from substitute keeper Chris Brady.
The U.S. lead was restored in the 63rd minute when Folarin Balogun latched on to Timothy Weah‘s cross and fired home from the left side of the penalty area. Despite the win, Pochettino noted that there are defensive issues that need to be cleaned up.
“I think for me, under my view and my opinion, I think things that we concede were through our mistake,” the U.S. coach said. “If we improve in the way to manage some situation, I think we will avoid [them].”
Pochettino added: “Of course, they have quality and very good player, but I think the chances that we concede were all being with the capacity to read better some actions on the game. I think we can avoid the possibility to concede and we are going to be focused next week working in all the type of thing to try to improve.”
After opening Group D play against Paraguay, the U.S. will face Australia and Türkiye as it looks to advance to the round of 32 knockout stage. The World Cup begins on June 11 when co-host Mexico plays South Africa in Mexico City.
Triple Espresso, to go: USWNT trio happy to be back together ahead of friendlies in Brazil
The Paris Olympics in August 2024 was the last time the trio played together for the United States. Carl Recine / Getty Images
By Tamerra Griffin June 3, 2026
It’s been 22 months since Trinity Rodman, Sophia Wilson, and Mallory Swanson have all been on a U.S. women’s national team roster.But as they spoke to the media on Wednesday from São Paulo ahead of two USWNT friendlies against Brazil on June 6 and 9, it was clear that the chemistry between the three forwards collectively known as Triple Espresso compressed that stretch of time to nearly nothing.“I’m very excited to have them back, especially off the field,” Rodman, 24, said. “Their personalities are amazing to have in camp — having my sisters back is amazing. And then on the field, I feel like our connection is so good. Being able to play with them again has been really good, and I’m excited to keep doing it.”The attackers’ prolific connection was key to the U.S.’s gold medal run at the 2024 Summer Olympics in France, the last time all three played together. Triple Espresso combined for 10 goals for the U.S., and Swanson scored the one that sent them to the top of the podium against Brazil in the gold medal match.
Despite dealing with a back injury, Rodman has played the most with the national team during those 22 months apart as Wilson and Swanson were on maternity leave; Wilson gave birth to her daughter Gigi in September, and Swanson to her daughter Josie in November last year.Wilson received her first national team invitation since becoming a mother during the last window, when the U.S. played three matches against Japan.“I feel like the team has done a lot in the time that Mal and I have been gone, but they’ve done a really good job of making sure that we are getting caught up and feel like when we come back into camp, like we haven’t missed a beat and can kind of just get back on the ground and flying,” Wilson, 25, said on Wednesday. “It’s been good, it’s been fun, and obviously, it’s so good to be back with these girls.”
This camp and the upcoming Brazil games mark Swanson’s return to the national team since her leave. The 28-year-old was only two days into the experience by the time of the press conference but had been following the team closely from afar.“When I was out, I was obviously watching the games and keeping up, and trying to not only just watch as a fan, but also as a player, and just see just, like, the tactical game of what we’re trying to achieve,” she said. “I think that there’s been a lot of depth within that, and Emma’s done a great job of getting so many different players on the same page with that.”The joy of Triple Espresso’s reunion was palpable even from the remote distance of a Zoom call, each one delighting in the presence of the other as they murmured and giggled in between reporters’ questions. When Wilson and Swanson discussed the challenges of being without their children on this trip, Rodman playfully stretched across their laps and said, “I’ll be your guys’ baby.”
Swanson has made three NWSL appearances for the Chicago Stars this season since being activated from maternity leave, scoring once.David Banks-Imagn Images
In their own ways, Wilson and Swanson did watch after Rodman when she resumed playing last summer after an extended leave to manage a chronic back issue. Swanson recalled celebrating Rodman’s first goal and game-winner with the Washington Spirit in her first game back last August, and Wilson appreciated one of her goal celebrations after scoring in January with the national team
“I think the best part was the fact that she somehow got Emma to do that publicly,” Wilson said of the once-viral ‘Sexy Dexy’ TikTok dance Rodman goaded Hayes into doing with her during a friendly against Chile. “It was impressive.” It’s fitting that Triple Espresso could reunite on the pitch against Brazil, the last team they faced together in the Olympic gold medal match (winning 1-0), in their opponents’ territory, just over a year out from the World Cup. Swanson, Wilson, and Rodman are on different fitness paths and will likely play various stretches across the games on June 6 and 10, but all three have found the back of the net for their respective NWSL clubs.The U.S. has only played Brazil on its home soil six times before, making any opportunity to compete there invaluable. For Triple Espresso, rebuilding their minutes together will be crucial to the USWNT’s World Cup preparation. Tamerra Griffin is a women’s soccer writer for The Athleti
USMNT player ratings: Pulisic shines in 8/10 performance in pre-World Cup win over Senegal
- Ryan S. ClarkMay 31, 2026, 06:05 PM ET ESPN
Christian Pulisic nabbed a goal and an assist in the first half before Folarin Balogun‘s eventual game winner in the second half paced the U.S. men’s national team in its 3-2 friendly victory Sunday against Senegal at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.Pulisic set up Sergiño Dest‘s opener, then scored one himself to give the U.S. a 2-0 lead before Sadio Mané scored on both sides of halftime, the second one as part of a chaotic second half.This was the first of two friendlies for the Americans as they’ll face four-time FIFA World Cup champion Germany on Saturday. Here’s a look at how everyone involved in the U.S.’s win against one of Africa’s strongest powers performed with the World Cup inching closer.
Manager rating out of 10
Mauricio Pochettino, 7 — On the whole, the majority of the decisions made by Pochettino and his staff worked. Are there some questions? Yes, because there will be with every match no matter the outcome, but there were also a few items that got confirmed when it came to how comfortable certain players looked in specific roles.
Player ratings (0-10; 10 = best; 5 = average)
GK Matt Turner, 5 — Turner’s day didn’t get busy until the final 15 minutes when Senegal began to find openings. Before then, his most notable moment was coming out of the net to stop Mané without conceding a foul. He had a couple of saves when Senegal pressed before Mané beat him to cut the lead to 2-1.
DF Alex Freeman, 5 — Yes, he was beaten by Mané on the sequence that forced Turner to come out. However, he was involved in the buildup in the pass to Ricardo Pepi that eventually led to a goal while also showing the necessary recovery ability whenever there were errors in central defense.
Editor’s Picks
Why is the USMNT playing meaningless friendlies right before the World Cup?Joseph Lowery
World Cup 2026 kit ranking: All 105 jerseys that all 48 teams will bring to Canada, Mexico and U.S.Chris Wright
USMNT’s final World Cup roster is classic Pochettino — and it comes with big risksJeff Carlisle
DF Mark McKenzie, 5 — McKenzie performed like the more consistent option in central defense for the U.S. There were a few moments when he was able to get in front of the ball, interrupt Senegal’s passes and largely be in position when those counterattacks were present. However, he did have an errant pass that led to a turnover.
DF Tim Ream, 3 — It was a rough day for Ream on his home pitch. He was nearly caught out whenever he tried playing the ball with his feet upon facing Senegal’s press. There were also the errant passes that saw the visitors go on the counter, including one that almost led to Nicolas Jackson scoring. His most telling moment came on Mané’s first goal, when he was caught out of position in transition and forced Tyler Adams into a difficult situation.
DF Antonee Robinson, 7 — He established a connection with Pulisic on the left side that was present from the first few minutes. It led to the U.S. knowing it could rely on Robinson to play either long passes or quicker ones to shift into attack while he also found ways to get in front of passing lanes. But there was also a turnover that led to Senegal going on the counter in what was otherwise a strong day.
MF Sebastian Berhalter, 5 — Like Ream, he was a liability at times in the first half. There was the foul he gave up that led to a free kick just to the right of the 18-yard-box along with how he got beat by Bara Sapoko Ndiaye for a shot that went wide. Berhalter at times was involved with the attack but also had that moment late in the first that led to him getting caught off guard and Senegal countering. He seemed to find a little more comfort as the lone member of the starting XI to play in the second half.
MF Tyler Adams, 5 — Adams did what Adams does: He moved possession along and was part of the press that saw him offer support in defense. There was one slow touch he had that nearly led to a counter, but all in all, he did what was needed in a subtle manner.
FW Sergiño Dest, 7 — Knowing he can fly down the wing and help on either end was crucial with Mané being a threat. Dest’s opening goal in the seventh minute was an example of what makes him so versatile because of how he came into space. Plus, he almost had an assist when he found Pepi in space for a shot that was blocked near the end of the half.
FW Giovanni Reyna, 4 — He was involved in a few sequences and had some noticeable movements to help facilitate play. There was the heads-up play on the throw-in that nearly led to an opportunity, for example. But his efforts were overshadowed compared with everyone else in the midfield.
FW Christian Pulisic, 8 — Simply put, he was the Americans’ best player. There was what he did to set up Dest’s goal before scoring his own minutes later. It was the first time since June 2024 that Pulisic had a goal and an assist, according to ESPN Global Research. Every time Pulisic was on the ball or found space with Robinson, he looked like a threat to score or create issues.
FW Ricardo Pepi, 7 — Pepi’s first start with the U.S. since November 2024 saw him have one of his strongest performances in an American kit. There was the holdup play he had on Dest’s goal, along with the fact that he was willing to drop down and be a No. 10 if needed. There was also his commitment to consistently press while trying to get to every ball when he was on defense.
Substitutes (players introduced after 70 minutes get no rating)
GK Chris Brady (on for Turner, halftime), 4 — His first cap for the U.S. saw him get caught in a hard place when Mané scored his second goal.
DF Joe Scally (on for Freeman, halftime), 5 — Scally was involved in a few moments down the right that saw him close down on balls into the box. He also played a role in getting the ball into attack.
DF Miles Robinson (on for McKenzie, halftime), 3 — Robinson tried playing a pass only to have possession taken away by Jackson before Mané’s second goal tied the game at 2-2.
DF Auston Trusty (on for Ream, halftime), 5 — There were moments when Senegal found openings, but he appeared calm in those situations.
STREAM FUTBOL AMERICAS ON ESPN+
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DF Max Arfsten (on for Robinson, halftime), 5 — Arfsten’s day was quiet by comparison with the man he replaced, but he did his part in keeping Senegal from either tying the match or scoring a go-ahead goal.
MF Weston McKennie (on for Adams, halftime), 6 — Everything he did in his second-half cameo reinforces why he can be played in so many midfield positions. McKennie was active in many areas and was almost rewarded with a goal in the 75th minute.
FW Alejandro Zendejas (on for Berhalter, 76′), NR — His most notable moment came when he applied the pressure that forced a turnover, allowing him to get into space before his shot on net was blocked in the 82nd minute.
FW Timothy Weah (on for Dest, halftime), 6 — Weah’s strongest moment came when he set up Balogun on the cross into the box that allowed the striker to score the winning goal.
MF Cristian Roldan (on for Reyna, halftime), 5 — “Scoreless in Seattle” nearly came to an end, or it could have until his shot sailed well beyond the net.
MF Malik Tillman (on for Pulisic, halftime), 6 — He almost pulled off a goal and an assist, only to have both called back. Still, Tillman looked every bit the part of a spark plug who can create coming off the bench.
FW Folarin Balogun (on for Pepi, halftime), 7 — Balogun’s first goal was denied but he was able to make up for that when he patiently waited for Weah’s cross into the box, timed the deflection off a boot before striking it home for the match-winning salvo.
World Cup predictions: Picking the winner in every game of the entire tournament
Ryan O’HanlonJun 5, 2026, 03:49 AM ET ESPN
Everyone is using artificial intelligence to do, well, everything. With the World Cup starting on June 11, you can’t scroll for more than a couple of minutes without hitting another post or video or reel of someone telling you how they used AI to predict the World Cup. So, I decided to use my own supercomputer to predict every game of the 2026 World Cup — the supercomputer is called “my brain.” There will be 104 matches at the 2026 World Cup, and … OK fine, I lied. I have only predicted 103 of them. I skipped the third-place game because self-care is important. This is already the biggest World Cup ever, with the field having been expanded to 48 teams, which means we will have 38.5% more matches than we did four years ago. It’s a lot. With that, here is what happens when a human being predicts the outcome of every game of the 2026 World Cup.
Group A analysis and predictions
Mexico: 1800 Elo rating (ranked 14th of 48), 95% chance of advancing
South Korea: 1754 rating (20th), 77% chance of advancing
Czechia: 1691 rating (31st), 60% chance of advancing
South Africa: 1526 rating (45th), 35% chance of advancing
The ratings and predictions you see above come from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. It’s run by Jesse Davis, an American from Wisconsin, and they’re consistently producing the most cutting-edge, public-facing analytics work in the soccer world. Every four years, they also try to predict the World Cup, using a model that has outperformed bookmakers in previous tournaments.
But do not take that as betting advice! The model has outperformed the implied probabilities derived from bookmaker odds once you remove the vig (the sportsbook’s commission), not the actual odds you would’ve been able to place a bet against.
Anyway, the DTAI odds will be our baseline to work off of going forward. But I’m also not going to mirror those odds in my predictions because that would be boring. It would be more accurate, it would be less fun — and it would also be wrong.
Why? Even if, say, all the top 10 teams in the tournament have a 90% chance of advancing out of their group, that would mean there’s only a 35% chance that all 10 of them get out of their group. So, we’re going to try to identify the favorites and underdogs most likely to get sent home, too.
As for Group A, the main thing to know is that Mexico are heavy favorites for two reasons:
(1) They get to play every game at home. In European club soccer, the difference between playing the same team home and away is essentially the difference between adding or removing peak Lionel Messi from your lineup.
(2) They lucked out with the draw. Neither South Korea nor Czechia have the talent levels of golden generations past, while South Africa are one of the weakest teams in the tournament.
Game-by-game Group A predictions:
Mexico 2, South Africa 0
South Korea 1, Czechia 1
Czechia 1, South Africa 0
Mexico 1, South Korea 1
South Africa 1, South Korea 2
Czechia 1, Mexico 2
Predicted Group A standings
1. Mexico: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. South Korea: 5 points, plus-1 goal differential
3. Czechia: 4 points, even goal differential
4. South Africa: 0 points, minus-4 goal differential
Group B analysis and predictions
Canada: 1741 rating (24th), 94% chance of advancing
Switzerland: 1781 rating (16th), 94% chance of advancing
Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1589 Elo (41st), 46% chance of advancing
Qatar: 1591 Elo (40th), 29% chance of advancing
Much like Mexico, hosts Jesse Marsch & Co. landed a favorable draw. Not only do the Canadians get to play all their games at home, but they get to play against two of the bottom 10 teams in the tournament.
If we look at all competitive games registered in the Opta database for all 48 World Cup participants since the start of 2024, there are four teams with negative goal differentials, and two of them are in Group B: Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
As you might expect from a team managed by the only guy (Jesse Marsch) to manage all three of Red Bull’s main clubs — New York, Salzburg, then Leipzig — Canada are going to press when they can. They’re among the leaders in the field in all the major pressing metrics: passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), opponent pass completion percentage and the start distance from goal of their average possession.
In the past, Marsch has told me, “If we’re winning 2-0, I’m always thinking of 3-0 and rarely thinking of 2-1.” And that’s evident with Canada, too. They haven’t conceded a ton of shots, but when you break their press, you can get in on goal. Only two teams have allowed higher quality shots, as measured by expected goals per shot conceded.
Their toughest match will come against Switzerland, who are the U.S. men’s national team of Europe — a team that continues to produce top-level talent you’ll see playing in the Champions League every Tuesday and Wednesday but is still looking for its first few superstars.
Unfortunately, attacking midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri retired from the national team two years ago, meaning the odds of a player stripping completely naked after scoring a goal are significantly lower than they’ve been in any of the past three tournaments.
Game-by-game Group B predictions:
Canada 2, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1
Qatar 0, Switzerland 2
Switzerland 2 vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina 1
Canada 1, Qatar 0
Switzerland 1, Canada 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0, Qatar 1
Predicted Group B standings
1. Switzerland: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Canada: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Qatar: 3 points, minus-2 goal differential
4. Bosnia & Herzegovina: 0 points, minus-3 goal differential
Group C analysis and predictions
Brazil: 1885 rating (5th), 97% chance of advancing
Morocco: 1736 rating (25th), 91% chance of advancing
Scotland: 1684 rating (32nd), 66% chance of advancing
Haiti: 1583 rating (42nd), 16% chance of advancing
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Brazil have the fourth-best odds of winning the World Cup — after the three consensus favorites: Spain, France and England. This is the same team … that finished fifth in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying.
Given how many people bet on the World Cup, I can’t help but think that this is one of the rare examples where an outsized amount of public money is boosting a team’s odds. They’ve won five World Cups, they have the fun yellow jerseys, they have a bunch of guys who only go by one name, etc.
The talent of this team, though, isn’t quite what it used to be. The roster features multiple players playing in both Saudi Arabia and Russia. And outside of 34-year-old, possibly-not-healthy Neymar, no one else has scored more than 11 goals for the national team.
That said, Morocco — with their fantastic defense and their lawyer-awarded AFCON title — seem like the only team likely to challenge Carlo Ancelotti’s group in the group stages. Scotland have a bunch of familiar names, and they’ll be frustrating to play against, but the results haven’t been there. Meanwhile Haiti have been outscored 8-2 in the three matches they’ve played against World Cup teams since the start of 2024.
Hakimi: Morocco really happy to be at the 2026 World Cup
Game-by-game Group C predictions:
Brazil 0, Morocco 1
Haiti 1 vs. Scotland 2
Scotland 0, Morocco 0
Brazil 3, Haiti 0
Scotland 0, Brazil 1
Morocco 2, Haiti 0
Predicted Group C standings
1. Morocco: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Brazil: 6 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Scotland: 4 points, even goal differential
4. Haiti: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
Group D analysis and predictions
United States: 1765 rating (18th), 78% chance of advancing
Türkiye: 1771 rating (17th), 73% chance of advancing
Australia: 1747 rating (22nd), 64% chance of advancing
Paraguay: 1706 rating (28th), 58% chance of advancing
A quick little lesson on probabilities here: All four teams in Group D are more likely to advance to the knockout rounds than not because of the eight third-place teams who will advance. And yet, it is impossible for all four teams from Group D to advance to the knockout rounds because every fourth-place team will be automatically eliminated.
So, just how evenly matched are these teams? The rating gap between the U.S. and Paraguay is smaller than the gap between England and France, the fourth- and third-ranked teams, respectively. And if you’re wondering why the USMNT has the best odds to advance despite the second-best rating, it’s because all their games are home games.
I’ve written multiple times about how I don’t think this is a great draw for the USMNT, and here’s an example of why.
Take Ecuador, a similarly rated team to the Americans. They’re in a group with Germany, one of the pre-tournament favorites, and a very talented Ivory Coast team. However, Ecuador has a 92% chance of getting out of their group because the fourth-place team in that group is Curaçao, who have the third-worst rating in the tournament.
If you finish in third place with at least three points, it’s very unlikely that you don’t make the knockouts. And in a group like Ecuador’s that has one truly weak side, it’s very likely that three points will be enough to land you in third.
In Group D, though, anyone can beat anyone, so there’s a very real chance that three points won’t be enough to finish third — either because another team with three points has the tiebreaker over you or because everyone else nabs at least four points.
Laurens: Paraguay could sneak into the World Cup knockouts
Game-by-game Group D predictions:
USMNT 2, Paraguay 0
Australia 1, Türkiye 1
USMNT 1, Australia 1
Türkiye 1, Paraguay 2
Paraguay 1, Australia 1
Türkiye 2, USMNT 1
Predicted Group D standings
1. USMNT: 4 points, plus-1 goal differential
2. Türkiye: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Paraguay: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Australia: 3 points, even goal differential
Group E analysis and predictions
Germany: 1867 rating (8th), 97% chance of advancing
Ecuador: 1793 rating (15th), 92% chance of advancing
Ivory Coast: 1618 rating (37th), 79% chance of advancing
Curaçao: 1520 rating (46th), 9% chance of advancing
I think this might even be a little too high for Curaçao. Both Germany and the Ivory Coast have more talented teams than their ratings suggest, so their high ends are both a little higher than what’s listed here.
Ecuador, meanwhile, are one of the strongest defensive teams in the tournament because of two defenders who just started the Champions League final, Arsenal‘s Piero Hincapié and Paris Saint-Germain‘s Willian Pacho, and one of the best defensive midfielders in the world in Chelsea‘s Moisés Caicedo.
I doubt there will be a ton of jockeying for places during the group stages because we don’t really know who is going to end up where. But if everything goes chalk, then the winner of this group would play France in the round of 16 while second place, according to the DTAI projections, would get Brazil in the round of 16 and England in the quarterfinals — both of whom are lower-rated than France.
Game-by-game Group E predictions:
Germany 5, Curaçao 0
Ivory Coast 0, Ecuador 1
Germany 3, Ivory Coast 1
Ecuador 2, Curaçao 0
Ecuador 1, Germany 1
Curaçao 1, Ivory Coast 3
Predicted Group E standings
1. Germany: 7 points, plus-7 goal differential
2. Ecuador: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Ivory Coast: 3 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Curaçao: 0 points, minus-9 goal differential
Group F analysis and predictions
Netherlands: 1868 rating (7th), 92% chance of advancing
Japan: 1833 rating (10th), 90% chance of advancing
Sweden: 1701 rating (29th), 49% chance of advancing
Tunisia: 1583 rating (43rd), 36% chance of advancing
Losing Kaoru Mitoma is a huge bummer for Japan. He peaked a little too late to become the kind of player the best clubs would’ve paid close to nine figures for, but he has genuinely played like one of those guys over the past three seasons.
Expected possession value is a stat that sums up how much a player’s on-ball actions increased his team’s chances of scoring a goal. And since 2023-24, the only players ahead of him are two starters for Manchester City, the last two Premier League players of the year, and the two best attackers on the team that just won the Premier League:
I’m focusing on Japan here because they’ve been genuinely excellent for a while now — hence their top-10 place in the Elo ratings. And they’re one of the few teams we can expect to actually see an organized defensive press from this summer.
If you’ve been upset about how the USMNT plays at any point over the past half-decade, Japan would be a legitimate reason for why. But only a couple of teams can afford losing their best attacker and still expect to make a deep run — Japan aren’t one of them.
One quick note on Sweden: they won zero games and finished last in their World Cup qualifying group.
Game-by-game Group F predictions:
Japan 2, Netherlands 1
Sweden 2, Tunisia 1
Netherlands 2, Sweden 0
Tunisia 0, Japan 1
Tunisia 0, Netherlands 3
Japan 1, Sweden 1
Predicted Group F standings
1. Japan: 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. Netherlands: 6 points, plus-4 goal differential
3. Sweden: 4 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Tunisia: 0 points, minus-5 goal differential
Group G analysis and predictions
Belgium: 1816 rating (12th), 88% chance of advancing
Iran: 1757 Elo (19th), 74% chance of advancing
Egypt: 1632 Elo (35th), 67% chance of advancing
New Zealand: 1599 Elo (39th), 41% chance of advancing
I recently saw something in some social media feed that labeled Belgium as a “potential dark horse” for the 2026 World Cup. Can you be a “dark horse” for four World Cups in a row? The reality is that this team is now part of the “Everyone Else” pack beyond the top seven or eight teams.
Jérémy Doku is the only real star on the roster — outside of the mid-30s former stars like Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium, then, seem primed to suffer an upset here. After all, they didn’t even get out of the group stages of the 2022 World Cup, when the roster was significantly better.
But they landed in a relatively easy group. Iran have the second-oldest roster after Panama. Egypt’s two stars (Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush) had down seasons after great years in 2024-25. And New Zealand, well, they have a better shot than any of the other bottom-tier teams at getting out of their group.
Game-by-game Group G predictions:
Editor’s Picks
- Ranked: The final 48 World Cup rosters are in! Which teams can win it?Ryan O’Hanlon
- World Cup’s new rules explained: VAR for corners, no GK ‘timeouts,’ red card for covering your mouthESPN
- the USMNT went from Italia 90 embarrassment to World Cup force in 1994Jeff Carlisle and Leander Schaerlaeckens
Belgium 2, Egypt 1
Iran 1, New Zealand 1
Belgium 1, Iran 1
New Zealand 2, Egypt 1
New Zealand 1, Belgium 2
Egypt 0, Iran 0
Group G standings
1. Belgium : 7 points, plus-2 goal differential
2. New Zealand: 4 points, even goal differential
3. Iran: 3 points, even goal differential
4. Egypt: 1 point, minus-2 goal differential
Group H analysis and predictions
Spain: 1979 rating (1st), 99% chance of advancing
Uruguay: 1803 Elo (13th), 86% chance of advancing
Saudi Arabia: 1616 Elo (38th), 36% chance of advancing
Cape Verde: 1489 Elo (47th), 34% chance of advancing
According to the crowdsourced numbers from Transfermarkt, there are currently six players in the world who would command a transfer fee of €200 million or more. Spain and France are the only teams that have two of those players on their rosters. Not coincidentally, Spain and France are the two favorites to win the World Cup.
Put another way, the combined transfer value of Lamine Yamal and Pedri is €350 million. The combined transfer value of the entire squads of Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, put together, is €96 million. Uruguay, meanwhile, just edge Yamal and Pedri, by about €50 million.
But that’s really just putting some numbers and faces on something you already know: This group has one huge favorite for first, another huge favorite for second and two other teams that will be scrapping it out for third.
De la Fuente confident Yamal will be fit for Spain’s World Cup opener
Game-by-game Group H predictions:
Spain 5, Cape Verde 0
Saudi Arabia 0, Uruguay 2
Spain 3, Saudi Arabia 0
Uruguay 3, Cape Verde 0
Uruguay 1, Spain 2
Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 1
Predicted Group H standings
1. Spain: 9 points, plus-9 goal differential
2. Uruguay: 6 points, plus-4 goal differential
3. Cape Verde: 3 points, minus-7 goal differential
4. Saudi Arabia: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
Group I analysis and predictions
France: 1939 rating (3rd), 95% chance of advancing
Senegal: 1727 rating (26th), 83% chance of advancing
Norway: 1746 rating (23rd), 72% chance of advancing
Iraq: 1653 rating (34th), 20% chance of advancing
The DTAI model is a little lower on Norway and Senegal than I am.
International soccer is a dumbed-down version of the game. Teams don’t have enough time to practice together, so they can’t coordinate the same kinds of high-pressing and possession-based patterns that you’ll see in Europe’s top leagues. It helps, instead, to have a bunch of decent defenders, a guy who creates the chances and a guy who scores the chances.
Norway have one of the best creators of chances in Martin Odegaard and the world’s best scorer of chances in Erling Haaland. Senegal, meanwhile, have a bunch of Europe-based talent that we already know works together because they won the version of the 2026 African Cup of Nations where the winner was determined on the field rather than by bureaucrats.
France are the most talented team in the tournament. It looks like they’re going to lose William Saliba to injury, and they already lost Hugo Ekitike to a torn Achilles. They’re the only country that could lose two players that good and still be among the favorites.
But to put the difficulty of their group into perspective: They’re the third favorites, according to the DTAI Lab, to win the World Cup, and they only have the seventh-best odds to advance out of the round of 32.
Game-by-game Group I predictions:
France 2, Senegal 1
Iraq 0, Norway 2
France 3, Iraq 1
Senegal 1, Norway 1
Norway 1, France 1
Senegal 3, Iraq 1
Predicted Group I standings
1. France: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
2. Norway: 5 points, plus-2 goal differential
3. Senegal: 4 points: plus-1 goal differential
4. Iraq: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
Group J analysis and predictions
Argentina: 1965 rating (2nd), 98% chance of advancing
Austria: 1749 rating (21st), 65% chance of advancing
Algeria: 1659 rating (33rd), 64% chance of advancing
Jordan: 1628 rating (36th), 35% chance of advancing
While I’m not particularly bullish on Argentina’s chances to win the World Cup, they’re still massive favorites in this group. Despite an aging squad with barely any turnover from 2022, the combined market value of their team is more than Jordan, Austria and Algeria put together.
Algeria are one of the younger teams in this tournament, while Austria are one of the few teams that should be able to put out a cohesive and aggressive press. While it’s unlikely that either team has the talent to shock Lionel Messi & Co., they both have the broad outlines of the kinds of teams that have shocked sides that held on for one cycle too many in the past.
It’s particularly important for Argentina to win this group, too. If they finish in second place, their most likely opponent in the round of 32? Spain.
Game-by-game Group J predictions:
Argentina 1, Algeria 0
Austria 3, Jordan 1
Argentina 2, Austria 2
Jordan 1, Algeria 1
Jordan 0, Argentina 3
Algeria 1, Austria 1
Predicted Group J standings
1. Argentina: 7 points, plus-4 goal differential
2. Austria: 5 points, plus-2 goal differential
3. Algeria: 2 points, minus-1 goal differential
4. Jordan: 1 point, minus-5 goal differential
Group K analysis and predictions
Portugal: 1874 rating (6th), 89% chance of advancing
Colombia: 1855 rating (9th), 90% chance of advancing
Uzbekistan: 1711 rating (27th), 52% chance of advancing
Congo DR: 1538 rating (44th), 35% chance of advancing
This group reminds me of Germany’s in 2018. Frankly, it reminds me a lot of Germany’s general situation, too.
Coming off the World Cup win, Germany entered 2018 as one of the favorites — but they were also quite skewed toward attack, and they were trying to thread the needle between multiple generations of talent. The group in 2018 didn’t contain any powerhouses, but all the teams, Sweden, Mexico and South Korea, were solid. Germany won one game, finished last in the group and went home early.
Portugal just won the UEFA Nations League. They’re one of the favorites this summer. They’re heavily skewed toward attacking because they’re managed by Roberto Martinez. And they’re opting for a lineup that sits 40-something Cristiano Ronaldo atop a group of players that you might even consider to be two generations behind him.
On top of that, Colombia are the ninth-best team according to DTAI’s ratings. Uzbekistan might seem like a minnow, but their rating sits them between Senegal and Paraguay. And while Congo DR don’t have much of a track record of success, they have much more talent than we’d expect from a team of their stature. By combined market value, they’re right between Bosnia & Herzegovina and South Korea.
As such, DTAI gives Portugal an 89% chance of getting out of their group — just the 16th-highest number among all participants. I’m forcing myself to pick one favorite to go home early, and here you have it.
Nicol: Ronaldo playing in a World Cup at 41 is ‘remarkable’
Game-by-game Group K predictions:
Portugal 1, Congo DR 2
Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 2
Portugal 2, Uzbekistan 1
Colombia 1, Congo DR 0
Colombia 2, Portugal 0
Congo DR 1, Uzbekistan 2
Predicted Group K standings
1. Colombia: 9 points, plus-4 differential
2. Uzbekistan: 3 points, minus-1 differential
3. Congo DR: 3 points, minus-1 differential
4. Portugal: 3 points, minus-2 differential
Group L analysis and predictions
England: 1886 rating (4th), 97% chance of advancing
Croatia: 1821 rating (11th), 90% chance of advancing
Panama: 1699 rating (30th), 46% chance of advancing
Ghana: 1478 rating (48th), 28% chance of advancing
Since the end of Euro 2024, England have:
-moved the ball upfield slower than anyone in the World Cup field
-produced the second-fewest possessions per game
-allowed the joint-fewest goals
-allowed the second-fewest shots
-scored the second-most goals from set pieces
This team is going to make a lot of people very angry, and they’re going to be so hard to beat. They play like the team that just won the Premier League and lost the Champions League final on penalties — but Harry Kane is their starting striker.
Game-by-game Group L predictions:
England 1, Croatia 1
Ghana 1, Panama 2
England 3, Ghana 0
Panama 1, Croatia 2
Panama 0, England 2
Croatia 2, Ghana 0
Predicted Group L standings
1. England: 7 points, plus-5 goal differential
2. Croatia: 7 points, plus-3 goal differential
3. Panama: 3 points, minus-2 goal differential
4. Ghana: 0 points, minus-6 goal differential
Predicting the World Cup round of 32
This new World Cup format is terrible for a number of reasons.
For starters, we won’t actually know who is qualified until every group stage game is played. On top of that, there are 495 different permutations for the round of 32 because FIFA doesn’t want teams from the same group playing each other in the round of 32.
So, the specific groups from which the eight-best third-place teams will determine who plays which first-place team in the round of 32. And then, since there are 12 first-place teams and only eight third-place teams, some first-place teams will have to play a second-place team and others a third-place team. But that’s not determined by group-stage performance — no it was already determined by a draw.
The winners of groups F, H, C and J (I think!) will all have to play second-place finishers. And then some other second-place finishers will get to play another second-place finisher instead of a first-place team.
So, it’s basically impossible to know what the draw is going to look like at this point, and yet the draw is going to have a bigger impact on this World Cup than any other World Cup. FIFA has done it again!
Anyway, based on my predictions, there won’t end up being a ton of interesting round of 32 games. Norway vs. Ecuador is a battle of two sleeper teams, Japan vs. Brazil is a matchup of two top-10 teams in the DTAI rating, and Argentina vs. Uruguay feels like it could set the record for yellow cards given out in a single game.
Perhaps more interestingly, my prediction has the U.S. winning their group, but they get a much harder round of 32 game (Ivory Coast) than the second-place team, Türkiye, who got matched up with the lowest-rated team (New Zealand) to advance beyond the group stage.
South Korea 1, Canada 2
Morocco 1, Netherlands 1 (Netherlands win in penalties)
Germany 2, Paraguay 0
Japan 1, Brazil 1 (Japan win in penalties)
Ecuador 1, Norway 2
France 3, Sweden 1
Mexico 1, Scotland 0
England 2, Congo DR 0
USMNT 2, Ivory Coast 1
Belgium 2, Czechia 1
Uzbekistan 0, Croatia 1
Spain 3, Austria 1
Türkiye 2, New Zealand 0
Argentina 1, Uruguay 0
Colombia 1, Senegal 1 (Colombia win in penalties)
Switzerland 0, Iran 1
Predicting the World Cup round of 16
Germany (30% chance to reach the quarterfinals) vs. France (50%)
This is the marquee matchup of the round of 16, and the one battle-of-heavyweights we can sketch out despite the convoluted draw procedure.
Germany have the talent advantage in the midfield, and they’re one of the few “system” teams in this tournament. In other words, they’re a side that has a clear, aggressive attacking approach that isn’t just built around set pieces, counterattacking or grinding their opponent into dust. Julian Nagelsmann is one of the best coaches in the world, and I think we forget that Germany were within minutes of knocking out Spain in the Euros.
A Germany win here — or, frankly, a Germany World Cup win — wouldn’t shock me, but they landed pretty much the worst draw possible.
Predicted result: France 2, Germany 1
Canada (27% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. Japan (28%)
This would be a really fun stylistic matchup. It would, essentially, be a Bundesliga match, with both teams trying to press each other and midfield control likely being nonexistent. Would Canada still have homefield advantage in Houston?
Predicted result: Canada 1, Japan 0
Netherlands (34% chance of reaching QFs) vs. Norway (18%)
Since the start of 2024, Norway have scored 52 goals across 14 competitive matches, and they’ve only conceded 12. That plus-40 goal differential is the best of anyone in the field.
Predicted result: Norway 1, Netherlands 1 (Norway win in penalties)
Mexico (36% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. England (40%)
These teams have the fourth- and sixth-best odds of reaching the final eight. The problem for Mexico here is that their most likely outcome lines them up with England in the round of 16 — even if the combined probability of all the easier potential outcomes is way higher. This game would be at the Azteca in Mexico City, but England probably have enough to grind it out.
Predicted result: England 1, Mexico 0
Croatia (19% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. Spain (60%)
One of these teams is a lot better than the other team.
Predicted result: Spain 3, Croatia 1
United States (21% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. Belgium (25%)
The number of Belgium players who were on the roster when these teams met in 2014: four.
The number of USMNT players who were on the roster when these teams met in 2014: zero.
That, plus some nice homefield advantage out in Seattle, is enough for the USMNT to make its first quarterfinals appearance in 24 years.
Predicted result: USMNT 2, Belgium 1
Red, White & Clueless
Argentina (56% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. Türkiye (18%)
I don’t love that Argentina’s team is old and that they’re using nearly the exact same core from 2022. Messi gets hurt all the time now — what happens if he gets hurt this summer?
The innovator’s dilemma seems like it should strike again. But even though we don’t like to admit it, luck of the draw plays as big of a role in deciding the World Cup winner as does anything else.
Predicted result: Argentina 1, Türkiye 0
Iran (13% chance of reaching the QFs) vs. Colombia (33%)
In a game that has absolutely no political undertones — nope, none at all — Colombia should win quite easily.
Predicted result: Colombia 2, Iran 0
Predicting the World Cup quarterfinals
France (33% chance to reach the semifinals) vs. Canada (11%)
There’s, unfortunately, not much to analyze here. France just have way too much talent for Jesse Marsch & Co. to handle.
Predicted result: France 2, Canada 0
Spain (48% chance to reach the semifinals) vs. United States (7%)
This would be the best team the U.S. has played in a World Cup since 1994. Yes, they played eventual champions Germany in 2014, but that game ended up not even being a must-win for the Germans, who comfortably finished atop the group. It didn’t feel like a fully competitive game.
This game would — much like when the Americans matched up with Brazil in the round of 16 in 1994. Spain are just too organized and too talented.
Predicted result: Spain 2, USMNT 0
Norway (7% chance of reaching the semifinals) vs. England (23%)
Based on the DTAI odds, there’s about an 80% chance that at least one team from outside their top 10 makes the semifinals. Of course, none of those teams are particularly likely to make it themselves, but the combined probability of the 38 teams outside the top 10 is overwhelming.
If this doesn’t make sense, well, just think about the winner. No one has a better than 24% chance of winning the tournament, but one of those teams still has to win the tournament.
And so, the team with Haaland and Ødegaard and the impeccable recent track record and a bunch of huge dudes and a draw that avoids France and Spain becomes our outside-the-top-10 team to reach the semifinals.
Predicted result: Norway 1, England 0
Argentina (42% chance of reaching the semifinals) vs. Colombia (18%)
The vulnerable Argentineans … draw another team that I don’t think is particularly likely to knock them off. All my criticisms of Argentina — that they haven’t refreshed the team at all, that they’re reliant on one star and a bunch of 30-somethings — all apply directly to Colombia, who have the same problem but with less talent.
Predicted result: Argentina 1, Colombia 0
Predicting the World Cup semifinals
France (19% chance of reaching the final) vs. Spain (35%)
The last time these teams met was in the semifinals of the UEFA Nations League last summer. Spain won 5-4. Their previous meeting: the semifinals of Euro 2024 that Spain won 2-1. In other words, this could be one of the all-time great World Cup matchups.
At the same time, Spain was winning that Nations League semifinal 4-0 and then 5-1 before France scored a flurry of late goals to make the scoreline look more respectable.
Both teams enter the tournament with superstars carrying injuries. Yamal missed the last month of the season for Barcelona with a hamstring injury, while Saliba might miss the World Cup with a back injury. That’s the best right winger and the best center back in the world.
Based on the draw, though, it doesn’t really seem like Spain are going to face a significant challenge until the semifinals, so Yamal might be able to ramp himself up without Spain paying the price. France have as much depth as anyone at center back, but Saliba has a level-headed calm that no one else on the roster offers.
Predicted result: Spain 3, France 3 (Spain win in penalties)
Norway (3% chance of reaching the final) vs. Argentina (28%)
This feels a lot like the France-Morocco from the semifinals in 2022: the defending World Cup champ vs. the sleeper that upset a number of favorites along the way.
Norway have more high-end talent than that Morocco team, and they fit the exact blueprint of the team that could knock off this creaky Argentina group — big, strong, fast and straightforward. But for as much as I want to, I can’t look at that 3% number and allow myself to do it.
Predicted result: Argentina 2, Norway 1
Predicting the 2026 World Cup final
Spain (24% chance of winning the World Cup) vs. Argentina (17%)
On form alone, these are the two best teams in the world — by a sizable margin.
Argentina have won two Copa Americas on either side of the previous World Cup and dominated the CONMEBOL qualifying stretch. Spain, meanwhile, are the defending European champions, lost the Nations League final on penalties and conceded just two goals during an undefeated World Cup qualifying run.
Not only that, the draw in this iteration of the tournament set up nicely for both. And I do think most of the most-likely permutations set up nicely for both. Even if we followed the DTAI projections exactly, neither team would match up with a top-eight side until the semifinals.
The Messi-Yamal narrative would be impossible to avoid. There is, after all, literally a photograph of Messi holding a newborn Yamal in his arms. And I do think it would be fitting. Kylian Mbappé was the first potential heir to Messi’s greatest-of-all-time throne; Messi beat him in the 2022 final. Then there was Haaland, who in this prediction, would also be vanquished by Argentina in the 2026 semifinals.
But in reality, Yamal is more like Messi than either of them. He plays more like him, he plays for the same team as him, and the sheer breadth of his accomplishments at such an early age make him more likely to one day match Messi’s exploits than anyone else. If he’s going to do that, the 2026 World Cup final would be a great place to start.
Predicted winner: Spain 2, Argentina 1
Mark OgdenMar 31, 2026, 03:21 AM ET
Cesar HernandezMar 28, 2026, 06:47 PM ET
The Ole BallCoach 